Kuki Nickel ari Umusazi?

Ibisobanuro:Kuvuguruzanya hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibisabwa ni imwe mu mpamvu zitera izamuka ry’ibiciro bya nikel, ariko inyuma y’isoko rikabije ry’isoko, abantu benshi bavugwa mu nganda ni "benshi" (bayobowe na Glencore) na "ubusa" (cyane cyane Itsinda rya Tsingshan)..

Vuba aha, hamwe n’amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine nka fuse, LME (London Metal Exchange) nikel ejo hazaza yatangiriye ku isoko rya "epic".

Kuvuguruzanya hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibisabwa ni imwe mu mpamvu zitera izamuka ry’ibiciro bya nikel, ariko inyuma y’imiterere y’isoko rikabije, abantu benshi bavugwa mu nganda ni uko imbaraga z’imari shingiro z’impande zombi ari "ikimasa" (kiyobowe na Glencore) na " ubusa "(cyane cyane Itsinda rya Tsingshan).

LME nikel isoko ryigihe cyo kurangiza

Ku ya 7 Werurwe, igiciro cya nikel cya LME cyavuye kuri US $ 30.000 / toni (igiciro cyo gufungura) kigera kuri US $ 50,900 / toni (igiciro cyo kwishura), umunsi umwe wiyongereyeho 70%.

Ku ya 8 Werurwe, ibiciro bya nikel bya LME byakomeje kuzamuka, bizamuka hejuru ya US $ 101,000 / toni, hanyuma bigaruka kuri $ 80.000 / toni.Mu minsi ibiri yubucuruzi, igiciro cya nikel LME cyazamutseho 248%.

Ku isaha ya saa yine z'ijoro ku ya 8 Werurwe, LME yafashe icyemezo cyo guhagarika ubucuruzi bw'ejo hazaza no gusubika itangwa ry'amasezerano yose ya nikel yari ateganijwe gutangwa ku ya 9 Werurwe.

Ku ya 9 Werurwe, Itsinda rya Tsingshan ryashubije ko rizasimbuza icyuma cya nikel cyo mu rugo hamwe na plaque ya nikel ndende, kandi kikaba cyarageneye umwanya uhagije wo kugemura binyuze mu nzira zitandukanye.

Ku ya 10 Werurwe, LME yavuze ko iteganya guhagarika imyanya ndende kandi ngufi mbere yo gufungura ubucuruzi bwa nikel, ariko impande zombi zananiwe kubyakira neza.

Kuva ku ya 11 kugeza ku ya 15 Werurwe, nikel ya LME yakomeje guhagarikwa.

Ku ya 15 Werurwe, LME yatangaje ko amasezerano ya nikel azakomeza ubucuruzi ku ya 16 Werurwe ku isaha yaho.Itsinda rya Tsingshan ryatangaje ko rizahuza hamwe n’inguzanyo y’inguzanyo ya nikel ya Tsingshan ifite amafaranga akenewe.

Muri make, Uburusiya, nk’ingenzi mu kohereza ibicuruzwa bya nikel, byemerewe kubera intambara y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, bigatuma nikel yo mu Burusiya idashobora gutangwa kuri LME, ikarenga ku bintu byinshi nko kudashobora kuzuza umutungo wa nikel muri Amajyepfo yuburasirazuba bwa Aziya mugihe gikwiye, Tsingshan Itsinda ryubusa ryuruzitiro ntirishoboka Gutangwa mugihe, byateje urunigi.

Hariho ibimenyetso bitandukanye byerekana ko iki gikorwa cyiswe "gukanda kigufi" kitararangira, kandi itumanaho numukino hagati yabafatanyabikorwa barebare kandi bagufi, LME, nibigo byimari biracyakomeza.

Dufashe nk'akanya, iyi ngingo izagerageza gusubiza ibibazo bikurikira:

1. Kuki icyuma cya nikel gihinduka intumbero yumukino mukuru?

2. Gutanga ibikoresho bya nikel birahagije?

3. Kwiyongera kw'ibiciro bya nikel bizagira izihe ngaruka ku isoko rishya ry'imodoka?

Nickel kuri bateri yingufu iba pole nshya yo gukura

Hamwe niterambere ryihuse ryimodoka nshya zingufu kwisi, hejuru yikigereranyo cya nikel ndende na cobalt nkeya muri bateri ya lithium, nikel ya bateri yamashanyarazi ihinduka inkingi nshya yo gukoresha nikel.

Inganda ziteganya ko mu 2025, bateri y’amashanyarazi ya ternary ku isi izagera kuri 50%, muri yo bateri nini ya nikel yo hejuru izarenga 83%, naho umubare wa bateri ya seriyeri 5 uzagabanuka munsi ya 17%.Isoko rya nikel naryo riziyongera kuva kuri toni 66.000 muri 2020 rigere kuri toni 620.000 muri 2025, hamwe n’ikigereranyo cyo kwiyongera kwa buri mwaka ku kigero cya 48% mu myaka ine iri imbere.

Nkuko biteganijwe, isi ikenera nikel kuri bateri yamashanyarazi nayo iziyongera kuva munsi ya 7% kugeza ubu 26% muri 2030.

Nkumuyobozi wisi yose mumodoka nshya yingufu, imyitwarire ya "nikel hoarding" ya Tesla irasaze.Umuyobozi mukuru wa Tesla, Musk, yavuze kandi inshuro nyinshi ko ibikoresho bya nikel ari byo bikomeye bya Tesla.

Gaogong Lithium yabonye ko kuva mu 2021, Tesla yagiye ikorana n’isosiyete ikora ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y'agaciro ya New Caledoniya y’Abafaransa yitwa Proni Resources, igihangange mu bucukuzi bw’amabuye y'agaciro ya Ositarariya BHP Billiton, Burezili Vale, isosiyete icukura amabuye y'agaciro yo muri Kanada Giga Metals, Abacukuzi b'amabuye y'agaciro ya Talon Metals, n'ibindi. umubare wamasezerano maremare yo gutanga kuri nikel yibanze.

Byongeye kandi, ibigo byo mumashanyarazi yinganda nka CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, na Tsingshan Group nabyo byongera kugenzura umutungo wa nikel.

Ibi bivuze ko kugenzura umutungo wa nikel bihwanye no kumenya itike yo kugera kuri tiriyari y'amadorari.

Glencore ni umucuruzi w’ibicuruzwa binini ku isi kandi ni umwe mu baterankunga benshi ku isi kandi batunganya ibikoresho birimo nikel, hamwe na portfolio y’ibikorwa byo gucukura amabuye y'agaciro ya nikel muri Kanada, Noruveje, Ositaraliya na New Coledoniya.umutungo.Mu 2021, umutungo wa nikel winjiza umutungo uzaba miliyari 2.816 US $, umwaka ushize wiyongera hafi 20%.

Nk’uko imibare ya LME ibigaragaza, kuva ku ya 10 Mutarama 2022, umubare w'amafaranga yinjira mu bubiko bwa nikel futures ufite umukiriya umwe wagiye wiyongera kuva kuri 30% ugera kuri 39%, kandi mu ntangiriro za Werurwe, umubare w'amafaranga yinjira mu bubiko yarenze 90% .

Ukurikije ubu bunini, isoko ivuga ko ibimasa muri uyu mukino muremure-bigufi bishoboka cyane ko ari Glencore.

Ku ruhande rumwe, Itsinda rya Tsingshan ryacishije mu buhanga bwo gutegura "NPI (icyuma cy'ingurube cya nikel kiva mu butare bwa nikel) - cyagabanije cyane igiciro kandi biteganijwe ko kizagabanya ingaruka za nikel sulfate kuri nikel nziza. (hamwe nikel irimo munsi ya 99.8%, izwi kandi nka nikel yibanze).

Ku rundi ruhande, 2022 izaba umwaka umushinga mushya wa Tsingshan Group muri Indoneziya uzashyirwa mu bikorwa.Tsingshan ifite ibyifuzo byiterambere byiterambere kubushobozi bwayo ubwubatsi.Muri Werurwe 2021, Tsingshan yasinyanye amasezerano yo gutanga nikel yo hejuru ya nikel na Huayou Cobalt na Zhongwei Co., Ltd. Nikel yo hejuru.

Twakwibutsa ko ibyo LME isabwa kubicuruzwa bitangwa na nikel ari nikel yera, naho nikel yo hejuru ni igicuruzwa giciriritse kidashobora gukoreshwa mugutanga.Nikings nziza ya Qingshan itumizwa muburusiya.Nikel y’Uburusiya yabujijwe gucuruza kubera intambara y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, ikarenga ku bicuruzwa biri hasi cyane ku isi, ibyo bikaba byashyize Qingshan mu kaga ko "nta bicuruzwa bihinduka".

Nukuri kubwibyo umukino muremure-muto wa nikel uri hafi.

Nikel kwisi yose hamwe nibitangwa

Nk’uko ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika (USGS) bubitangaza, guhera mu mpera za 2021, ububiko bwa nikel ku isi (bwagaragaye ko bubitse ku butaka) bugera kuri toni miliyoni 95.

Muri byo, Indoneziya na Ositaraliya bifite toni zigera kuri miliyoni 21, bingana na 22%, biza ku mwanya wa kabiri;Burezili ifite 17% bya nikel ya toni miliyoni 16, iza kumwanya wa gatatu;Uburusiya na Filipine bifite 8% na 5%.%, urutonde rwa kane cyangwa gatanu.Ibihugu TOP5 bingana na 74% byumutungo wa nikel.

Ubushinwa bwa nikel bugera kuri toni miliyoni 2.8, bingana na 3%.Nkumuguzi wingenzi wumutungo wa nikel, Ubushinwa bushingiye cyane kubitumizwa mumitungo ya nikel, hamwe nibicuruzwa bitumizwa hejuru ya 80% mumyaka myinshi.

Ukurikije imiterere yubutare, ubutare bwa nikel bugabanijwemo nikel sulfide na nikelite ya nikelite, ikigereranyo cya 6: 4.Iyambere iherereye muri Ositaraliya, Uburusiya no mu tundi turere, naho iyanyuma iherereye muri Indoneziya, Burezili, Filipine n'utundi turere.

Ukurikije isoko yo gusaba, icyifuzo cyo hasi cya nikel ahanini ni ugukora ibyuma bitagira umwanda, ibivanze na batiri.Ibyuma bitagira umuyonga bingana na 72%, ibishishwa hamwe na casting bingana na 12%, na nikel kuri bateri ni 7%.

Mbere, hari inzira ebyiri zigenga zitangwa muburyo bwo gutanga nikel: "icya nyuma nikel-nikel ingurube / nikel icyuma-kitagira ibyuma" na "nikel sulfide-nikel-bateri nikel".

Muri icyo gihe, isoko ryo gutanga no gukenera isoko ya nikel nayo igenda ihura nubusumbane bwimiterere.Ku ruhande rumwe, umubare munini w'ingurube y'ingurube ya nikel yakozwe na gahunda ya RKEF yashyizwe mu bikorwa, bivamo ubwinshi bw'icyuma cy'ingurube;kurundi ruhande, biterwa niterambere ryihuse ryimodoka nshya zingufu, bateri Gukura kwa nikel byatumye habaho kubura nikel nziza.

Imibare yatanzwe na Biro y'Isi ishinzwe ibarurishamibare yerekana ko muri 2020 hazaba hasigaye toni 84.000 za nikel. Guhera mu 2021, nikel ku isi izamuka ku buryo bugaragara.Igurishwa ryimodoka nshya zingufu zatumye ubwiyongere bwikoreshwa rya nikel, kandi ikibazo cyo kubura isoko rya nikel ku isi kizagera kuri toni 144.300 muri 2021.

Ariko, hamwe niterambere rya tekinoroji yo gutunganya ibicuruzwa hagati, inzira yo gutanga ibice byombi yavuzwe haruguru iracika.Ubwa mbere, ubutare bwo hasi ya latite irashobora kubyara nikel sulfate binyuze mubicuruzwa bitunganijwe hagati ya HPAL;icya kabiri, ubutare bwo murwego rwohejuru burashobora kubyara nikel yingurube binyuze muri RKEF pyrotechnic, hanyuma ikanyura mumashanyarazi kugirango ikore nikel yo murwego rwohejuru, nayo ikabyara nikel sulfate.Iratahura ibishoboka bya latite nikel ikoreshwa mubikorwa bishya byingufu.

Kugeza ubu, imishinga yo gukora ikoresheje ikoranabuhanga rya HPAL irimo Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, nibindi. Muri icyo gihe, umushinga wa Qingmeibang washojwe na CATL na GEM, umushinga wa nikay-cobalt wa Huayue washowe na Huayou Cobalt, na nikel ya Huafei. -umushinga wa cobalt washoye na Yiwei ni imishinga yose ya HPAL.

Byongeye kandi, umushinga muremure wa nikel uyobowe na Tsingshan Group washyizwe mubikorwa, uno wafunguye icyuho kiri hagati ya nikel na nikel sulfate, kandi umenya ihinduka ryicyuma cyingurube hagati yicyuma kitagira umwanda ninganda nshya zingufu.

Inganda zibitekerezo ni uko mugihe gito, irekurwa ryubushobozi buke bwa nikel matte ritaragera ku bunini bwo koroshya itangwa ryibintu bya nikel, kandi kwiyongera kwa nikel sulfate biracyaterwa no gusenya nikel yibanze nka nikel ibishyimbo / ifu ya nikel.komeza inzira ikomeye.

Mugihe kirekire, ikoreshwa rya nikel mumirima gakondo nkibyuma bidafite ingese byakomeje kwiyongera, kandi inzira yo gukura byihuse mubijyanye na batteri yumuriro wa ternary irashidikanywaho.Ubushobozi bwo kubyaza umusaruro umushinga wa "nikel ingurube-nini ya nikel matte" bwashyizwe ahagaragara, kandi umushinga wa HPAL uzinjira mugihe cyo kubyara umusaruro mwinshi muri 2023. Icyifuzo rusange cyumutungo wa nikel kizagumana uburinganire bukomeye hagati yibitangwa nibisabwa muri ejo hazaza.

Ingaruka zo kuzamuka kwa nikel ku isoko rishya ryimodoka

Mubyukuri, kubera igiciro cya nikel cyiyongereye cyane, Model ya Tesla ya Model 3 ikora cyane hamwe na Model Y igihe kirekire, verisiyo ikora cyane ikoresheje bateri-nikel nyinshi byombi byiyongereyeho 10,000.

Ukurikije buri GWh ya bateri ya litiro nini cyane (ifata urugero rwa NCM 811), harasabwa toni 750 zicyuma cya nikel, kandi buri GWh ya nikel yo hagati na ntoya (5 serie, 6 serie) bateri ya litiro ya 500-600 toni y'icyuma cya nikel.Noneho igiciro cyibice cya nikel cyiyongera 10,000 10,000 kuri toni yicyuma, bivuze ko igiciro cya bateri ya litiro ya litiro kuri GWh cyiyongera hafi miliyoni 5 kugeza kuri miliyoni 7.5.

Ikigereranyo cyagereranijwe ni uko mugihe nikel ari US $ 50.000 / toni, ikiguzi cya Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) kiziyongera ku 10.500;kandi igihe nikel izamutse igera kuri 100.000 US $ / toni, igiciro cya Tesla Model 3 kiziyongera.Kwiyongera hafi 28.000.

Kuva mu 2021, kugurisha isi ku binyabiziga bishya byingufu byiyongereye, kandi isoko ryinjira muri bateri zikoresha ingufu za nikel ryihuse.

By'umwihariko, moderi zo mu rwego rwo hejuru z’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi mu mahanga ahanini zifata inzira y’ikoranabuhanga rikoresha nikel nyinshi, ibyo bikaba byaratumye habaho kwiyongera cyane mu bushobozi bwa bateri za nikel nyinshi ku isoko mpuzamahanga, harimo CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI nandi masosiyete akomeye ya batiri mubushinwa, Ubuyapani na Koreya yepfo.

Ku bijyanye n'ingaruka, kuruhande rumwe, ihinduka ryicyuma cyingurube kuri nikel ya matte ndende byatumye irekurwa ryihuse ryubushobozi bwumushinga kubera ubukungu budahagije.Ibiciro bya Nickel bikomeje kuzamuka, bizamura ubushobozi bwumusaruro wa nikel matte wo muri Indoneziya kugirango wihutishe umusaruro.

Ku rundi ruhande, kubera izamuka ry’ibiciro, imodoka nshya zitangira kuzamura ibiciro hamwe.Inganda muri rusange zifite impungenge ko niba igiciro cyibikoresho bya nikel gikomeje kwiyongera, umusaruro nogurisha moderi ya nikel nyinshi yimodoka nshya zishobora kwiyongera cyangwa kugarukira muri uyu mwaka.