Ibisobanuro:Kuvuguruzanya hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibisabwa ni imwe mu mpamvu zitera izamuka ry’ibiciro bya nikel, ariko inyuma y’isoko rikabije ry’isoko, abantu benshi bavugwa mu nganda ni "benshi" (bayobowe na Glencore) na "ubusa" (cyane cyane n'itsinda rya Tsingshan)..
Vuba aha, kubera amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine nka fuse, LME (London Metal Exchange) nikel ejo hazaza yatangiriye ku isoko rya "epic".
Kuvuguruzanya hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibisabwa ni imwe mu mpamvu zitera izamuka ry’ibiciro bya nikel, ariko inyuma y’isoko rikabije ry’isoko, abantu benshi bavugwa mu nganda ni uko ingabo z’imari shingiro z’impande zombi ari "ikimasa" (kiyobowe na Glencore) na " ubusa "(cyane cyane Itsinda rya Tsingshan).
LME nikel isoko ryigihe cyo kurangiza
Ku ya 7 Werurwe, igiciro cya nikel LME cyavuye kuri US $ 30.000 / toni (igiciro cyo gufungura) kigera kuri US $ 50,900 / toni (igiciro cyo kwishura), umunsi umwe wiyongereyeho 70%.
Ku ya 8 Werurwe, ibiciro bya nikel bya LME byakomeje kuzamuka, bizamuka kugeza ku madorari y'Abanyamerika 101.000 / toni, hanyuma bigaruka kuri $ 80.000 / toni.Mu minsi ibiri yubucuruzi, igiciro cya nikel LME cyazamutse kugera kuri 248%.
Ku isaha ya saa yine z'ijoro ku ya 8 Werurwe, LME yafashe icyemezo cyo guhagarika ubucuruzi bw'igihe kizaza cya nikel no gusubika itangwa ry'amasezerano yose ya nikel yari ateganijwe gutangwa ku ya 9 Werurwe.
Ku ya 9 Werurwe, Itsinda rya Tsingshan ryashubije ko rizasimbuza icyuma cya nikel cyo mu rugo n’icyapa cyacyo kinini cya nikel, kandi kikaba cyarageneye umwanya uhagije wo kugemura binyuze mu nzira zitandukanye.
Ku ya 10 Werurwe, LME yavuze ko iteganya guhagarika imyanya ndende kandi ngufi mbere yo gufungura ubucuruzi bwa nikel, ariko impande zombi zananiwe kubyakira neza.
Kuva ku ya 11 kugeza ku ya 15 Werurwe, nikel ya LME yakomeje guhagarikwa.
Ku ya 15 Werurwe, LME yatangaje ko amasezerano ya nikel azakomeza ubucuruzi ku ya 16 Werurwe ku isaha yaho.Itsinda rya Tsingshan ryatangaje ko rizahuza na syndicat y’inguzanyo zishingiye kuri nikel ya Tsingshan ifite amafaranga akenewe kandi ikemurwa.
Muri make, Uburusiya, nk’ingenzi mu kohereza ibicuruzwa bya nikel, byemejwe kubera intambara y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, bituma nikel yo mu Burusiya idashobora gutangwa kuri LME, ikarenga ku bintu byinshi nko kudashobora kuzuza umutungo wa nikel muri Amajyepfo yAmajyepfo ya Aziya mugihe gikwiye, Tsingshan Itsinda ryubusa ryuruzitiro ntirishoboka Gutangwa mugihe, byateje urunigi.
Hano haribimenyetso bitandukanye byerekana ko iki gikorwa cyiswe "gukanda kigufi" kitararangira, kandi itumanaho numukino hagati yabafatanyabikorwa barebare kandi bagufi, LME, nibigo byimari biracyakomeza.
Gufata umwanya, iyi ngingo izagerageza gusubiza ibibazo bikurikira:
1. Kuki icyuma cya nikel gihinduka intumbero yumukino mukuru?
2. Gutanga ibikoresho bya nikel birahagije?
3. Kwiyongera kw'ibiciro bya nikel bizagira izihe ngaruka ku isoko rishya ry'imodoka?
Nickel ya bateri yingufu ihinduka pole nshya yo gukura
Hamwe niterambere ryihuse ryibinyabiziga bishya byingufu kwisi, byarengeje urugero rwa nikel nyinshi na cobalt nkeya muri bateri ya litiro ya litiro, nikel ya bateri yamashanyarazi ihinduka pole nshya yo gukura kwa nikel.
Inganda ziteganya ko mu 2025, bateri y’amashanyarazi ku isi yose izaba igera kuri 50%, muri yo bateri ya nikel yo mu rwego rwo hejuru izaba ifite hejuru ya 83%, naho umubare wa bateri zikurikirana 5 zizagabanuka munsi ya 17%.Isoko rya nikel naryo riziyongera kuva kuri toni 66.000 muri 2020 rigere kuri toni 620.000 muri 2025, hamwe n’ikigereranyo cyo kwiyongera kw’umwaka ku kigero cya 48% mu myaka ine iri imbere.
Nk’uko biteganijwe, isi ikenera nikel kuri bateri y’amashanyarazi nayo iziyongera kuva munsi ya 7% kugeza ubu igera kuri 26% muri 2030.
Nkumuyobozi wisi yose mumodoka nshya yingufu, imyitwarire ya "nikel hoarding" ya Tesla irasaze.Umuyobozi mukuru wa Tesla, Musk, yavuze kandi inshuro nyinshi ko ibikoresho bya nikel ari byo bikomeye bya Tesla.
Gaogong Lithium yabonye ko kuva mu 2021, Tesla yagiye ikorana n’isosiyete ikora ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’amabuye y’Abafaransa ya New Caledoniya yitwa Proni Resources, igihangange mu bucukuzi bw’amabuye y'agaciro ya BHP Billiton, Burezili Vale, isosiyete icukura amabuye y'agaciro yo muri Kanada Giga Metals, umucukuzi w’amabuye y'agaciro witwa Talon Metals, n'ibindi. umubare wamasezerano maremare yo gutanga kuri nikel yibanze.
Byongeye kandi, ibigo byo mu ruganda rukora amashanyarazi nka CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, na Tsingshan Group nabyo byongera kugenzura umutungo wa nikel.
Ibi bivuze ko kugenzura umutungo wa nikel bihwanye no kumenya itike yo kugera kuri tiriyari y'amadorari.
Glencore ni umucuruzi w’ibicuruzwa binini ku isi kandi ni umwe mu bantu benshi ku isi batunganya ibicuruzwa kandi batunganya ibikoresho birimo nikel, hamwe na portfolio y’ibikorwa byo gucukura amabuye y'agaciro bijyanye na nikel muri Kanada, Noruveje, Ositaraliya na New Coledoniya.umutungo.Mu 2021, umutungo wa sosiyete nikel winjiza uzaba miliyari 2.816 z'amadolari ya Amerika, umwaka ushize wiyongera hafi 20%.
Nk’uko imibare ya LME ibigaragaza, kuva ku ya 10 Mutarama 2022, umubare w'amafaranga yinjira mu bubiko bwa nikel futures ufite umukiriya umwe wagiye wiyongera kuva kuri 30% ugera kuri 39%, naho mu ntangiriro za Werurwe, umubare w'amafaranga yinjira mu bubiko arenga 90% .
Ukurikije ubu bunini, isoko rivuga ko ibimasa muri uyu mukino muremure bigufi bishoboka cyane ko ari Glencore.
Ku ruhande rumwe, Itsinda rya Tsingshan ryacishije mu buhanga bwo gutegura "NPI (icyuma cy'ingurube cya nikel kiva mu bucukuzi bwa nikel) - nikel matte yo hejuru", yagabanije cyane igiciro kandi biteganijwe ko izahagarika ingaruka za nikel sulfate kuri nikel nziza. (hamwe nikel irimo munsi ya 99.8%, izwi kandi nka nikel yibanze).
Ku rundi ruhande, 2022 izaba umwaka umushinga mushya wa Tsingshan Group muri Indoneziya uzashyirwa mu bikorwa.Tsingshan ifite ibyifuzo bikomeye byo gukura kubushobozi bwayo bwite irimo kubakwa.Muri Werurwe 2021, Tsingshan yasinyanye na Huayou Cobalt na Zhongwei Co., Ltd. Nikel yo hejuru.
Twakwibutsa ko ibyo LME isabwa kubicuruzwa bya nikel ari nikel yera, kandi nikel yo hejuru ya matel nigicuruzwa giciriritse kidashobora gukoreshwa mugutanga.Nikings nziza ya Qingshan itumizwa muburusiya.Nikel y’Uburusiya yabujijwe gucuruza kubera intambara y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, ikarenga ku bicuruzwa biri hasi cyane ku isi, ibyo bikaba byashyize Qingshan mu kaga ko "nta bicuruzwa byahinduka".
Nukuri kubwibyo umukino muremure-mugufi wicyuma cya nikel uri hafi.
Nikel kwisi yose hamwe nibitangwa
Nk’uko ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika (USGS) bubitangaza, kugeza mu mpera z'umwaka wa 2021, ububiko bwa nikel ku isi (byagaragaye ko ari ububiko bw’ubutaka bushingiye ku butaka) bugera kuri toni miliyoni 95.
Muri bo, Indoneziya na Ositaraliya bifite toni zigera kuri miliyoni 21, bingana na 22%, biza ku mwanya wa kabiri;Burezili ifite 17% bya nikel ingana na toni miliyoni 16, iza ku mwanya wa gatatu;Uburusiya na Filipine bingana na 8% na 5%.%, urutonde rwa kane cyangwa gatanu.Ibihugu TOP5 bingana na 74% byumutungo wa nikel ku isi.
Ubushinwa bwa nikel bugera kuri toni miliyoni 2.8, bingana na 3%.Nkumuguzi munini wumutungo wa nikel, Ubushinwa bushingiye cyane kubitumizwa mumitungo ya nikel, hamwe nibicuruzwa bitumizwa hejuru ya 80% mumyaka myinshi.
Ukurikije imiterere yubutare, ubutare bwa nikel bugabanijwemo cyane nikel sulfide na nikelite ya latite, ikigereranyo cya 6: 4.Iyambere iherereye muri Ositaraliya, Uburusiya no mu tundi turere, naho iyanyuma iherereye muri Indoneziya, Burezili, Filipine no mu tundi turere.
Ukurikije isoko ryo gusaba, icyifuzo cyo hasi cya nikel ahanini ni ugukora ibyuma bitagira umwanda, ibivangwa na batiri.Ibyuma bitagira umwanda bingana na 72%, ibishishwa hamwe na casting bingana na 12%, na nikel kuri bateri ni 7%.
Mbere, hari inzira ebyiri zigenga zitangwa muburyo bwo gutanga nikel: "icyuma cya nikel-nikel ingurube icyuma / nikel icyuma-kitagira ibyuma" na "nikel sulfide-nikel-bateri nikel".
Muri icyo gihe, isoko ryo gutanga no gukenera isoko rya nikel naryo rigenda rihura nubusumbane bwimiterere.Ku ruhande rumwe, umubare munini w'ingurube y'ingurube ya nikel yakozwe na gahunda ya RKEF yashyizwe mu bikorwa, bivamo umubare ugereranije w'icyuma cy'ingurube;kurundi ruhande, biterwa niterambere ryihuse ryimodoka nshya zingufu, bateri Gukura kwa nikel byatumye habaho kubura nikel nziza.
Amakuru aturuka muri raporo y’ibiro by’isi bishinzwe ibarurishamibare yerekana ko muri 2020 hazaba arenga toni 84.000 za nikel. Guhera mu 2021, nikel ku isi iziyongera ku buryo bugaragara.Igurishwa ry’imodoka nshya zifite ingufu zatumye ubwiyongere bw’ikoreshwa rya nikel, kandi ikibazo cyo gutanga isoko ku isoko rya nikel ku isi kizagera kuri toni 144.300 mu 2021.
Ariko, hamwe niterambere rya tekinoroji yo gutunganya ibicuruzwa hagati, inzira yavuzwe haruguru yuburyo bubiri itanga inzira iracika.Ubwa mbere, amabuye yo mu rwego rwo hasi ya latite arashobora kubyara nikel sulfate binyuze mu bicuruzwa bitunganijwe hagati ya HPAL;icya kabiri, urwego rwohejuru rwa latite rushobora kubyara nikel yingurube binyuze muri RKEF pyrotechnic, hanyuma ikanyura mumashanyarazi ihindura kugirango itange nikel yo mu rwego rwo hejuru, nayo ikabyara nikel sulfate.Iratahura ibishoboka bya latite nikel yamabuye yinganda nshya.
Kugeza ubu, imishinga itanga umusaruro ikoresheje ikoranabuhanga rya HPAL irimo Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, n'ibindi. Muri icyo gihe, umushinga wa Qingmeibang washojwe na CATL na GEM, umushinga wa nikay-cobalt wa Huayue washojwe na Huayou Cobalt, na nikel ya Huafei. -umushinga wa cobalt washoye na Yiwei ni imishinga yose ya HPAL.
Byongeye kandi, umushinga muremure wa nikel matte uyobowe na Tsingshan Group washyizwe mu bikorwa, ari nabwo wafunguye icyuho kiri hagati ya nikel na nikel sulfate, maze umenya ihinduka ry’icyuma cy’ingurube cya nikel hagati y’ibyuma bitagira umwanda n’inganda nshya.
Inganda zibitekerezo ni uko mugihe gito, irekurwa ryubushobozi buke bwa nikel matte itaragera ku bunini bwo koroshya icyuho cy’ibintu bya nikel, kandi kwiyongera kwa nikel sulfate biracyaterwa no gusesa nikel y'ibanze nka nikel ibishyimbo / ifu ya nikel.komeza inzira ikomeye.
Mu gihe kirekire, ikoreshwa rya nikel mu mirima gakondo nk'ibyuma bitagira umwanda byakomeje kwiyongera, kandi inzira yo gukura byihuse mu bijyanye na bateri y’amashanyarazi ya gatatu.Ubushobozi bwo kubyaza umusaruro umushinga wa "nikel ingurube icyuma kinini cya nikel matte" cyashyizwe ahagaragara, kandi umushinga wa HPAL uzinjira mu gihe cy’umusaruro rusange mu 2023. Icyifuzo rusange cy’umutungo wa nikel kizakomeza uburinganire bukomeye hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibisabwa muri ejo hazaza.
Ingaruka zo kuzamuka kwa nikel ku isoko rishya ryimodoka
Mubyukuri, kubera igiciro cya nikel cyiyongereye, Model ya Tesla ya Model 3 ikora cyane hamwe na Model Y igihe kirekire, verisiyo ikora cyane ikoresheje bateri nyinshi ya nikel yiyongereyeho 10,000.
Ukurikije buri GWh ya bateri ya litiro ya nikel ndende (ifata urugero rwa NCM 811), harasabwa toni 750 z'icyuma cya nikel, kandi buri GWh ya nikel yo hagati na ntoya (5 serie, serie 6) bateri ya litiro ya litiro ikenera 500-600 toni y'icyuma cya nikel.Noneho igiciro cyibice cya nikel cyiyongera ku 10,000 10,000 kuri toni yicyuma, bivuze ko igiciro cya bateri ya litiro ya litiro kuri GWh yiyongera hafi miliyoni 5 kugeza kuri miliyoni 7.5.
Ikigereranyo gikabije ni uko mugihe igiciro cya nikel ari US $ 50.000 / toni, igiciro cya Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) kiziyongera ku 10.500;kandi mugihe igiciro cya nikel kizamutse US $ 100,000 / toni, igiciro cya Model ya Tesla 3 kiziyongera.Kwiyongera hafi 28.000.
Kuva mu 2021, kugurisha kwisi ku binyabiziga bishya by’ingufu byiyongereye, kandi isoko ryinjira muri bateri zifite ingufu nyinshi za nikel ryihuse.
By'umwihariko, moderi zo mu rwego rwo hejuru z’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi mu mahanga ahanini zifata inzira y’ikoranabuhanga rya nikel yo hejuru, ibyo bikaba byaratumye habaho kwiyongera cyane mu bushobozi bwashyizweho na bateri nyinshi za nikel nyinshi ku isoko mpuzamahanga, harimo CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI nandi masosiyete akomeye ya batiri mu Bushinwa, Ubuyapani na Koreya yepfo.
Ku bijyanye n'ingaruka, kuruhande rumwe, ihinduka ryicyuma cya nikel ingurube kuri nikel ya matte ndende byatumye irekurwa ryihuse ryumusaruro wumushinga kubera ubukungu budahagije.Ibiciro bya Nickel bikomeje kuzamuka, bizamura ubushobozi bw’umusaruro w’imishinga minini ya nikel matte yo muri Indoneziya kugirango yihutishe umusaruro.
Ku rundi ruhande, kubera izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibikoresho, ibinyabiziga bishya by’ingufu byatangiye kuzamura ibiciro hamwe.Inganda muri rusange zifite impungenge ko niba igiciro cyibikoresho bya nikel gikomeje kwiyongera, umusaruro nogurisha moderi ya nikel nyinshi yimodoka nshya zishobora kwiyongera cyangwa kugarukira muri uyu mwaka.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Apr-12-2022